Background

Notes and format last updated May 7, 2020

Starting on the May 7th update, the NY Times began including probable covid cases/deaths along with confirmed. This mostly affects death counts – for certain geographies that include probable COVID deaths in addition to confirmed, these are now added to the totals. For the time being, they were all added to the May 6th totals, causing a big spike at the U.S. level. Over time, NY Times will revise their historical counts and distribute these added deaths when they actually occurred, so the spike should fade.

Growth rates

Heat maps

  • The two heat maps below compare how quickly total cases or deaths have grown at various times in our respective geopgraphies.
  • The first plot compares growth rate for total cases; the second, growth rate for total deaths.
  • The metric used is doubling time, by which I mean how quickly total cases or deaths are doubling.
  • The plots track that doubling time at each date for our geographies. Darker colors reflect shorter doubling times, and thus periods of faster growth.
    • You can use the plots to track each geography over time and to compare the geographies to one another.
    • You can also compare the cases and death charts, to see how faster periods of death growth follow faster periods of case growth.

Case growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new cases for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total cases and new cases.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of cases, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new cases) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new case reporting at the state level.
    • For total cases, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total cases. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total cases have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total case line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new cases, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new cases. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total cases, we want to watch for the lines for new cases to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new cases on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

Death growth rates

  • This section charts the growth rate of both total and new deaths for each of our respective geographies. Each geography has its own chart, and then that chart will have a trendline for total deaths and new deaths.
    • There are only plots for the U.S. and states because the numbers for the counties are too small to generate worthwhile trendlines in this section.
  • Note that we’re charting growth rate and not a count of deaths, so don’t think of these as the standard “curve” that we hear about in the news and that we want to flatten. Instead, these growth rate charts help track more precisely what we can only estimate when we see those other curves. For these growth rate charts, if the line is above zero, the metric we are tracking (total or new deaths) is continuing to grow. If the growth rate line is going up, it’s growing more quickly each day; if it’s going down but still above zero, it’s growing less quickly (but still growing). Only when the growth rate lines go below zero has the metric stopped growing.
  • Each of these two lines uses rolling windows to calculate a growth rate for that particular metric. I do the calculation differently for each to smooth out some of the large day-to-day discrepancies in new death reporting at the state level.
    • For total deaths, the trendlines are a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rates in total deaths. We want to see these decline (and almost all are), but they can’t go below zero. This is because we’re tracking growth rate and a growth rate line below zero would mean total deaths have gone down, which can’t happen. They can only grow less quickly, which means we want to see the total death line get as close to zero as possible.
    • For new deaths, the trendlines show a rolling 3-day average of daily growth rate in the rolling 7-day average of new deaths. Including two rolling periods in this average helps smooth out crazy spikes at the state level that result from large day-to-day changes. Unlike the lines for total deaths, we want to watch for the lines for new deaths to get consistently below zero and stay there. That means that we are consistently seeing fewer new deaths on a daily basis.

U.S.

Our states

By population rankings

This section tracks metrics for states and counties normalized for population (number of cases or deaths per million residents), and then compares these figures both for our geographies and the country overall.

States

  • This section shows tables ranking all 50 states for per populations rates of total cases, new cases, total deaths, and new deaths.
  • For each metric, in addition to the tables, the trends for the top states are plotted over time.
    • We only plot the top ten states for each metric so that the plots aren’t too crowded. But you can view the full 50-state rankings in the tables.

Total confirmed cases

Table of total confirmed cases per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Cases Per Million
1 Louisiana 34,071
2 Florida 30,915
3 Mississippi 30,198
4 Arizona 28,647
5 Alabama 28,298
6 Georgia 26,156
7 South Carolina 25,611
8 Tennessee 24,792
9 Nevada 23,910
10 Texas 23,794
11 Iowa 23,668
12 Arkansas 23,268
13 New York 23,084
14 New Jersey 22,339
15 Rhode Island 21,621
16 Illinois 20,860
17 District of Columbia 20,675
18 North Dakota 20,444
19 Idaho 19,972
20 Nebraska 19,741
21 Delaware 19,356
22 California 19,320
23 Maryland 19,286
24 South Dakota 18,807
25 Massachusetts 18,110
26 Utah 18,057
27 North Carolina 17,670
28 Oklahoma 17,527
29 Missouri 17,017
30 Kansas 16,958
31 Wisconsin 16,268
32 Indiana 16,045
33 Virginia 15,677
34 Connecticut 15,237
35 Minnesota 14,958
36 Kentucky 13,565
37 New Mexico 12,762
38 Michigan 12,323
39 Ohio 11,754
40 Puerto Rico 11,704
41 Pennsylvania 11,610
42 Washington 10,923
43 Colorado 10,703
44 Alaska 9,754
45 Montana 8,455
46 Hawaii 7,633
47 Wyoming 7,509
48 West Virginia 7,085
49 Oregon 6,955
50 New Hampshire 5,660
51 Maine 3,617
52 Vermont 2,698

New confirmed cases

Table of new cases per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Cases Per Million
1 North Dakota 496
2 South Carolina 341
3 South Dakota 302
4 Missouri 270
5 Arkansas 266
6 Wisconsin 257
7 Iowa 224
8 Oklahoma 223
9 Alabama 216
10 Indiana 177
11 Utah 177
12 Mississippi 173
13 Tennessee 165
14 Georgia 160
15 Kentucky 160
16 Illinois 151
17 Louisiana 145
18 Florida 143
19 Nebraska 140
20 Texas 138
21 Delaware 131
22 Virginia 128
23 Hawaii 127
24 North Carolina 126
25 West Virginia 126
26 Alaska 125
27 Idaho 124
28 Minnesota 121
29 Puerto Rico 114
30 Maryland 111
31 Nevada 111
32 Kansas 110
33 Montana 106
34 Ohio 94
35 California 87
36 District of Columbia 85
37 Wyoming 84
38 Michigan 72
39 Arizona 69
40 Colorado 61
41 Massachusetts 61
42 Oregon 53
43 New Mexico 52
44 Pennsylvania 49
45 Washington 46
46 New Jersey 45
47 New York 41
48 Rhode Island 38
49 New Hampshire 30
50 Maine 25
51 Connecticut 21
52 Vermont 12

Total deaths

Table of total deaths per million residents (all 50 states)
Ranking State Deaths Per Million
1 New Jersey 1,804
2 New York 1,677
3 Massachusetts 1,336
4 Connecticut 1,256
5 Louisiana 1,126
6 Rhode Island 1,010
7 Mississippi 906
8 District of Columbia 872
9 Arizona 731
10 Michigan 692
11 Illinois 675
12 Maryland 634
13 Delaware 631
14 Pennsylvania 618
15 South Carolina 595
16 Florida 586
17 Georgia 583
18 Indiana 510
19 Texas 498
20 Alabama 479
21 Nevada 472
22 New Mexico 392
23 Iowa 386
24 Ohio 377
25 California 364
26 Minnesota 349
27 Colorado 346
28 Arkansas 325
29 New Hampshire 320
30 Virginia 319
31 Tennessee 300
32 Missouri 293
33 North Carolina 293
34 Washington 273
35 Kentucky 246
36 Idaho 232
37 Nebraska 232
38 Oklahoma 228
39 North Dakota 224
40 Wisconsin 209
41 South Dakota 207
42 Kansas 183
43 Puerto Rico 168
44 West Virginia 148
45 Utah 135
46 Montana 127
47 Oregon 120
48 Maine 101
49 Vermont 92
50 Wyoming 72
51 Hawaii 69
52 Alaska 56

New deaths

Table of new deaths per million residents: rolling 3-day average (all 50 states)
Ranking State New Deaths Per Million
1 Louisiana 5
2 South Carolina 5
3 Texas 5
4 Arkansas 4
5 Florida 4
6 Georgia 4
7 Kansas 4
8 Mississippi 4
9 Montana 4
10 Tennessee 4
11 Alabama 3
12 North Dakota 3
13 Arizona 2
14 California 2
15 Illinois 2
16 Kentucky 2
17 Massachusetts 2
18 Minnesota 2
19 Nevada 2
20 North Carolina 2
21 Oklahoma 2
22 Puerto Rico 2
23 South Dakota 2
24 Hawaii 1
25 Idaho 1
26 Indiana 1
27 Iowa 1
28 Missouri 1
29 Nebraska 1
30 New Mexico 1
31 Ohio 1
32 Rhode Island 1
33 West Virginia 1
34 Alaska 0
35 Colorado 0
36 Connecticut 0
37 Delaware 0
38 District of Columbia 0
39 Maine 0
40 Maryland 0
41 Michigan 0
42 New Hampshire 0
43 New Jersey 0
44 New York 0
45 Oregon 0
46 Pennsylvania 0
47 Utah 0
48 Vermont 0
49 Virginia 0
50 Washington 0
51 Wisconsin 0
52 Wyoming 0

Counties

  • This section focuses on the county level. It shows tables with our counties ranked by percentile of U.S. counties for per population rates of total cases and total deaths.
    • Each table also shows the top five counties in the country in addition to our counties, for added perspecive.
  • In addition to the tables, our counties’ percentile for both total cases and total deaths are plotted over time.

Confirmed cases

Table showing total cases per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Cases Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Chattahoochee Georgia 145,228 1 99
Trousdale Tennessee 145,161 2 99
Lafayette Florida 144,740 3 99
Lincoln Arkansas 136,671 4 99
Lake Tennessee 122,149 5 99
Davidson Tennessee 39,169 173 94
Richland South Carolina 32,803 275 91
York South Carolina 17,112 1051 66
Orange California 16,412 1118 64
Pierce Washington 8,975 1998 36

Our county percentiles over time

Deaths

Table showing total deaths per million and percentile for all US counties. Includes our counties and the top 5 in the US for perspective.
County State Deaths Per Million Raw Ranking Percentile
Hancock Georgia 4,848 1 99
Galax city Virginia 4,412 2 99
Randolph Georgia 3,983 3 99
Terrell Georgia 3,634 4 99
Emporia city Virginia 3,554 5 99
Richland South Carolina 522 688 78
Davidson Tennessee 402 939 70
Orange California 344 1069 65
Pierce Washington 222 1465 53
York South Carolina 214 1496 52

Our county percentiles over time

Raw counts

Total confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New confirmed cases

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Total deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

New deaths

U.S.

Our states

Our counties

Stay-at-home comparisons